when discussing when China could catch up to the US in the semiconductor race.
BS. Untied states are not competitive at all for a long time. They should say China is catching up with Taiwan.
And it’s not a race, there’s no finish line, improvements have been happening for 50 years now and can continue for decades.
Ya but we have the ten commandments in classrooms! Check mate
Okay but Japan had a major breakthrough the other day that made this technique obsolete for the majority of components.
I mean if every headline about massive breakthroughs was the full truth all our appliances would be powered by tiny nuclear power plants and we would fly around with our jetpack. Cancer would be but a distant memory and world hunger a non issue because vertical farms would be literally in every home.
Average East-Asian news cycle:
China: “We are preventing the export of rare earth minerals to strengthen our country.”
US: “We are imposing tariffs to strengthen our economy.”
Japan: “22-year-old undergraduate turns a leaf into a battery.”
so, no jetpacks?
I mean if every headline about massive breakthroughs was the full truth all our appliances would be powered by tiny nuclear power plants and we would fly around with our jetpack. Cancer would be but a distant memory and world hunger a non issue because vertical farms would be literally in every home.
I’m from the school of “capitalism stops progress when there’s not profit to be made”.
So all these things could have come true if someone didn’t stop them because they were going to lose money.
Cut off a nation as big and determined as China and they will just become more self sufficient.
Given how the US has become more and more isolated as it turns hostile towards immigrants and what is called the Global South, of course the Mainland Chinese will befriend and establish trading deals with any country alienated by Trump. Like, for example, Taliban Afghanistan’s mineral deposits.
Haven’t China also claimed a lot of impossible tasks like Cold Fusion, cure for cancer, and breaking most modern encryptions?
Might want to remain skeptical for now.
This above all things. The number of inputs required to build a microchips is insane. There are probably 2 to 3 thousand separate vendors who are part of this process all of which produce highly specialized products. Not to mention the fact that all silicon used to produce chips is currently mined in a single quarry in South Carolina.
China might be able to make a fab, but the inputs required to make chips are too diverse for any single nation to build 3 or 4 nm chips at scale by themselves.
This seems about right. Progress was originally supposed to be 5-10 years. I’m not too sure on how effective these prototypes are. My guess is that their progress of EUV sources is quite far now, but that they’ll still need to have greater progress in regards to domestically created collector & debris mitigation systems, projection optics, mask blanks and other things.
Edit Addendum: Note, article agrees with the timeline of 5 years behind for China. Since their EUV source(presumably) works differently from ASML’s LPP EUV(many think China is going LDP route for EUV source), research may still go up to 10 years, as they will likely need to account for this when researching the other components in a full scanner. Alot of significant modifications or straight up new shit will have to be made. And even then, it’ll need to be commerically viable to compete with the West.
All they have to do is to make it good enough and cheap enough to commodotize the product which will flood the market and push the most advanced but expensive tech to the side.
Meanwhile ASML just stops doing R&D and give up on its extremely specialized supply chain. /s
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