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- This is way too brief and lacks any actual evidence for its argument
- It doesn’t touch on the main argument of AI bubble forecasters: that AI costs a massive amount of money to develop and run but does not make nearly enough money to recoup that investment. And people don’t seem to be interested enough in AI to actually pay for it, especially given that the actual price will be very high
I pay for it. One of the services I pay is about $25/mo and they release about one update a year or so. It’s not cutting edge, just specialized. And they are making a profit doing a bit of tech investment and running the service, apparently. But also they are just tuning and packaging a publicly available model, not creating their own.
What can’t be sustained is this sprint to AGI or to always stay at the head of the pack. It’s too much investment for tiny gains that ultimately don’t move the needle a lot. I guess if the companies all destroy one another until only one remains, or someone really does attain AGI, they will realize gains. I’m not sure I see that working out, though.
But also they are just tuning and packaging a publicly available model, not creating their own.
So they can be profitable because the cost of creating that model isn’t factored in, and if people stop throwing money at LLMs and stop releasing models for free, there goes their business model. So this is not really sustainable either.
The people releasing public models aren’t the ones doing this for profit. Mostly. I know OpenAI and DeepSeek both have. Guess I’ll have to go look up who trained GLM, but I suspect the resources will always be there to push the technology forward at a slower pace. People will learn to do more with less resources and that’s where the bulk of the gains will be made.
Edit: A Chinese university trained GLM. Which is the sort of place where I expect research will continue to be done.
A Chinese university trained GLM
A startup spun out by a university (z.ai). Their business model is similar to what everybody else does, they host their models and sell access while trying to undercut each other. And like others they raised billions in funding from investors to be able to do this.
The model is publicly available. You and I can run it — I do. People will continue to do research long after the bubble bursts. People will continue to make breakthroughs. The technology will continue forward, just at a slower, healthier pace once the money tightens up.
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these companies know what they’re doing
AGI is right around the corner
Shouldn’t be surprised that anime profile pic couldn’t believe they’re being lied to on the internet.
Why is it not surprising? Are people with anime profile pics more gullible or ignorant than the average person?
There was a time in my experience of twitter where the only anime profile pictures I ran across were people arguing about gamergate.
That’s exactly it. If you’re trusting Elon with the future of work you really should evaluate your position, and whether that anime pfp is doing you any favours
From that article it looks like this is supposed to be a joke and you’re not actually supposed to hold such a position unironically.
unironically ironic
i took the bait
An economic bubble isn’t when something is fake and ceases to exist when the bubble bursts.
We use the term when the market is inflated way beyond its value.
A bubble bursting is when people realize the market is inflated way beyond its value and pull out, leaving debt-ridden companies to their debt.
Some go bankrupt, stock prices fall, economy news outlets insist nobody could have predicted this, investments go elsewhere, people are laid off, and the people responsible fail upward to another grift.
when people start using the “don’t question them; they know what they’re doing” argument…I become even more suspicious. If they knew what they were doing the results would be apparent and spectacular to everyone; no one would question it…
the fact that trickery and forced adoption are required for the technology to succeed is very telling about the competence of the technology itself.
