“In case we don’t make a deal, we’ll need it,” Trump has said. Iran remains defiant in the face of ultimatums, pledging unprecedented retaliation to any attack.

Jeremy Scahill and Murtaza Hussain
Feb 18, 2026

A former senior U.S. intelligence official who is an informal advisor to the Trump administration on Middle East policy told Drop Site that, based on his discussions with current officials, he assesses an 80-90% likelihood of U.S. strikes within weeks.

Iran realizes that it is facing an unprecedented threat from the U.S. if a deal that conforms with Trump’s terms is not reached, former Pentagon official Jasmine El-Gamal told Drop Site. “This is not a dress rehearsal,” she said. “This is it. This is not the negotiations of last year or the year before or the year before that. They’re backed into a corner. There’s no off ramp.”

    • mlg@lemmy.worldEnglish
      1·
      1 day ago

      Probably not within the given time frame, the US is still trying to figure out a way to topple the government without a land invasion which would be insanely more expensive.

      Even without it, their airforce is practically nonexistent so they would be under constant air strikes which could cause desertion or internal rebellion.