As I already said, it’s impossible to time it and you’d be an idiot to try. There could be three more years of bubble first in which case shorting on margin would be ruinous. “Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent” yada yada.

I can say that nvidia is way overvalued and that it’s share price is going to go down without saying that we won’t need powerful chips.

I have similar concerns, comparing gdp to valuation seems nonsensical. But at the same time the valuation is still ludicrous. Nvidia designs chips, TSMC makes them, datacenters buy them, datacenters sell the compute to AI vendors like openai who sell services to customers for a price that doesn’t cover even a fraction their costs, let alone being profitable.

In my book, either two things will happen. Before the money runs out, the AI companies will hit their stated goal of AGI, but without doing any of the safety work, and then everybody dies. The money running out and GFC 2.0 is the “good” ending. If I was even remotely confident in my ability to guess the timing of how it would all play out I’d be shorting up to my eyeballs.